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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 19 at the 50

Miami Dolphins 28 – New York Jets 28

What Actually Happened

(:58) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 35 yards to NYJ 15, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-92-J.Denney.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +2.74 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 50, worth -1.22 EP
KICK -0.55 EP
  • 18% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.45 EP
  • 82% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 14, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model