Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 79

New York Jets 7 – Miami Dolphins 7

(9:21) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 51 yards to MIA 28, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 19-J.Grant.

The Three Options

GO -2.78 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.92 EP
65% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 79, worth -4.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model