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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 94

New York Giants 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(12:49) 9-B.Wing punts 53 yards to SEA 41, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-38-D.Deayon.

The Three Options

GO -2.71 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth +0.52 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 94, worth -5.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

PUNT -2.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 52, worth -2.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model