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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
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New York Giants

HC Ben McAdoo
Sunday 2017-10-22 · 16:25 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread -4.0 O/U 39.0

Win Probability

SEA
54.6%
NYG
45.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYG offense: -0.110 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • Eli Manning (NYG): -0.084 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • SEA on 7 more days rest than NYG
  • SEA defense: -0.085 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • NYG defense: -0.038 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (15th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SEA 23
–
NYG 20
Projected margin: SEA by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

SEA

Cliff Avril DE Out Neck
Luke Joeckel G Out Knee
Jeremy Lane CB Doubtful Groin
Michael Bennett DE Questionable Heel
Nazair Jones DT Questionable Knee
C.J. Prosise RB Questionable Ankle
Marcus Smith DE Questionable Ankle

NYG

Jonathan Casillas LB Out Neck
Calvin Munson LB Out Quadricep
Weston Richburg C Out Concussion
Olivier Vernon DE Out Ankle
Paul Perkins RB Out Ribs
Sterling Shepard WR Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 24
–
NYG 7

Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 11:58 TD NYG (11:58) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 88-E.Engram for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 0 – NYG 6
  • Q2 00:46 FG SEA (:46) 7-B.Walsh 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan. SEA 3 – NYG 7
  • Q3 07:36 TD SEA (7:36) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 89-D.Baldwin for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 9 – NYG 7
  • Q4 09:49 TD SEA (9:49) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 10-P.Richardson for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Toss to 21-J.D.McKissic who throws back to R.Wilson. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. SEA 16 – NYG 7
  • Q4 02:18 TD SEA (2:18) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 88-J.Graham for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 23 – NYG 7

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 13 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (8:47) 9-B.Wing punts 44 yards to SEA 10, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 98%

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short right to 88-J.Graham (24-E.Apple).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 5 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (12:49) 9-B.Wing punts 53 yards to SEA 41, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-38-D.Deayon.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 1 at the 77
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (2:56) 9-B.Wing punts 53 yards to SEA 24, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 30 for 6 yards (58-C.Grant, 51-Z.DeOssie).

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 4 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 89%

    (:46) 7-B.Walsh 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 13 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (11:43) 9-B.Wing punts 16 yards to 50, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-51-Z.DeOssie. Ball deflected by 58-D.J.Alexander.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 3 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 42%

    (9:53) 9-J.Ryan punts 32 yards to NYG 11, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 84-E.Eagan.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 5 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (9:00) 9-B.Wing punts 52 yards to SEA 32, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 16-T.Lockett pushed ob at SEA 41 for 9 yards (33-A.Adams).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 4 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (5:39) 9-B.Wing punts 42 yards to SEA 15, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 21 for 6 yards (22-W.Gallman).

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 6 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (4:04) 9-J.Ryan punts 49 yards to NYG 14, Center-69-T.Ott. 84-E.Eagan to NYG 14 for no gain (23-N.Thorpe).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 10 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 77%

    (14:23) 2-A.Rosas 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 2 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.26 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 40%

    (11:11) 9-J.Ryan punts 27 yards to NYG 17, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 84-E.Eagan.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 7 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (8:23) 9-B.Wing punts 44 yards to SEA 36, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 16-T.Lockett to 50 for 14 yards (85-R.Ellison, 51-Z.DeOssie).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 5 at the 26 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.09 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 82%

    (:42) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short middle to 18-R.Lewis (26-S.Griffin).