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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 77

New York Giants 7 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(2:56) 9-B.Wing punts 53 yards to SEA 24, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 30 for 6 yards (58-C.Grant, 51-Z.DeOssie).

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.04 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 77, worth -4.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.26 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 34, worth -1.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP