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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 21

Seattle Seahawks 0 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(:46) 7-B.Walsh 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +1.66 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.47 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.43 EP
KICK +2.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 31, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model