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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 13 at the 66

New York Giants 7 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(11:43) 9-B.Wing punts 16 yards to 50, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-51-Z.DeOssie. Ball deflected by 58-D.J.Alexander.

The Three Options

GO -1.91 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.74 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 66, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 24, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model