Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 84

New York Giants 7 – Seattle Seahawks 3

(9:00) 9-B.Wing punts 52 yards to SEA 32, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 16-T.Lockett pushed ob at SEA 41 for 9 yards (33-A.Adams).

The Three Options

GO -2.28 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.86 EP
56% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 84, worth -4.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model