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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 29

New York Giants 7 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(14:23) 2-A.Rosas 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.80 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 29, worth -1.15 EP
KICK +1.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 39, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model