Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 80

New York Giants 7 – Seattle Seahawks 17

(8:23) 9-B.Wing punts 44 yards to SEA 36, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 16-T.Lockett to 50 for 14 yards (85-R.Ellison, 51-Z.DeOssie).

The Three Options

GO -2.29 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.24 EP
62% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 80, worth -4.49 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model