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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 13 at the 54

New York Giants 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(8:47) 9-B.Wing punts 44 yards to SEA 10, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.41 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 54, worth -2.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 16, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model