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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 12 at the 13

Cleveland Browns 0 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(8:31) (Field Goal formation) 5-Z.Gonzalez 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.21 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.43 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 13, worth -0.41 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 23, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model