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Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Mularkey
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Cleveland Browns

HC Hue Jackson
Sunday 2017-10-22 · 13:00 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US ☀️ Clear Spread -5.5 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

TEN
52.0%
CLE
48.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to TEN: DeShone Kizer (CLE) -0.268 vs Marcus Mariota (TEN) +0.126 EPA/dropback (CLE starting DeShone Kizer in place of Kevin Hogan)
  • TEN offense: -0.126 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • CLE offense: -0.131 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

TEN 20
–
CLE 19
Projected margin: TEN by 1 Projected total: 39

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

TEN

Johnathan Cyprien S Out Hamstring
Corey Davis WR Out Hamstring
Delanie Walker TE Questionable Calf
Derrick Morgan LB Questionable Abdomen
DeMarco Murray RB Questionable Hamstring

CLE

James Burgess LB Out Knee
Jason McCourty CB Questionable Ankle
Kenny Britt WR Questionable Knee
Sammie Coates WR Questionable Hamstring
Jabrill Peppers S Questionable Toe

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 12
–
CLE 9

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:42 FG TEN (8:42) 4-R.Succop 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. TEN 3 – CLE 0
  • Q2 08:31 FG CLE (8:31) (Field Goal formation) 5-Z.Gonzalez 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. TEN 3 – CLE 3
  • Q2 01:40 FG TEN (1:40) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. TEN 6 – CLE 3
  • Q3 04:30 FG CLE (4:30) (Field Goal formation) 5-Z.Gonzalez 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. TEN 6 – CLE 6
  • Q4 14:55 FG TEN (14:55) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. TEN 9 – CLE 6
  • Q4 00:51 FG CLE (:51) 5-Z.Gonzalez 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. TEN 9 – CLE 9
  • Q5 02:00 FG TEN (2:00) 4-R.Succop 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. TEN 12 – CLE 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 8 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 82%

    (8:42) 4-R.Succop 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (6:44) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 53 yards to TEN 13, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 25-A.Jackson pushed ob at TEN 25 for 12 yards (10-S.Coates).

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (5:14) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 55 yards to CLE 12, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 11-B.Treggs to CLE 12 for no gain (13-T.Taylor). PENALTY on CLE-24-I.Campbell, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at CLE 12.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 12 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 94%

    (8:31) (Field Goal formation) 5-Z.Gonzalez 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%

    (1:40) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 98%

    (9:39) 22-D.Henry right guard to CLE 1 for no gain (53-J.Schobert).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 12 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 74%

    (4:30) (Field Goal formation) 5-Z.Gonzalez 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 7 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 76%

    (14:55) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 3 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 55%

    (12:22) (Shotgun) 6-C.Kessler pass incomplete deep left to 18-K.Britt.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 2 at the 35
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 60%

    (8:49) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 16 at the 85 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (4:26) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 51 yards to CLE 34, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 11-B.Treggs to CLE 47 for 13 yards (50-N.Palmer). PENALTY on CLE-20-B.Boddy-Calhoun, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 43.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 7 at the 52 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 18%

    (1:54) (Shotgun) 6-C.Kessler pass short middle to 29-D.Johnson to TEN 38 for 14 yards (59-W.Woodyard) [98-B.Orakpo].

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 8 at the 36 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 57%

    (:51) 5-Z.Gonzalez 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 2 at the 67 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58%

    (:25) 6-B.Kern punts 58 yards to CLE 9, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 11-B.Treggs to CLE 13 for 4 yards (32-D.Fluellen; 41-B.Trawick).