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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 5

Tennessee Titans 3 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(1:40) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +1.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.88 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 5, worth -0.24 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model