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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 28

Tennessee Titans 6 – Cleveland Browns 6

What Actually Happened

(14:55) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.41 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 28, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +0.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 38, worth -2.05 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model