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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 37

Cleveland Browns 6 – Tennessee Titans 9

What Actually Happened

(12:22) (Shotgun) 6-C.Kessler pass incomplete deep left to 18-K.Britt.

The Three Options

GO +0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.61 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 37, worth -1.79 EP
KICK -0.01 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model