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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 35

Tennessee Titans 9 – Cleveland Browns 6

What Actually Happened

(8:49) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +1.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.77 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 35, worth -1.62 EP
KICK +0.19 EP
What Happened
  • 60% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 45, worth -2.16 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP