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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 25

Tennessee Titans 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(8:42) 4-R.Succop 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +0.50 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.73 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25, worth -1.35 EP
KICK +0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 35, worth -2.25 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model