Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 16 at the 85

Tennessee Titans 9 – Cleveland Browns 6

What Actually Happened

(4:26) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 51 yards to CLE 34, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 11-B.Treggs to CLE 47 for 13 yards (50-N.Palmer). PENALTY on CLE-20-B.Boddy-Calhoun, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 43.

The Three Options

GO -3.13 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.16 EP
73% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 85, worth -4.74 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model