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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 36

Cleveland Browns 6 – Tennessee Titans 9

What Actually Happened

(:51) 5-Z.Gonzalez 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.45 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.00 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 36, worth -0.72 EP
KICK +0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.51 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 46, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model