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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 67

Tennessee Titans 9 – Cleveland Browns 9

What Actually Happened

(:25) 6-B.Kern punts 58 yards to CLE 9, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 11-B.Treggs to CLE 13 for 4 yards (32-D.Fluellen; 41-B.Trawick).

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.42 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 67, worth -1.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 25, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model