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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 66

Cleveland Browns 0 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(6:44) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 53 yards to TEN 13, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 25-A.Jackson pushed ob at TEN 25 for 12 yards (10-S.Coates).

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.93 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 66, worth -3.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 24, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP