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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 67

Tennessee Titans 3 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(5:14) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 55 yards to CLE 12, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 11-B.Treggs to CLE 12 for no gain (13-T.Taylor). PENALTY on CLE-24-I.Campbell, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at CLE 12.

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.27 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 67, worth -3.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.31 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 25, worth -1.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP