Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 11 at the 76

Chicago Bears 3 – New Orleans Saints 14

What Actually Happened

(13:40) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 57 yards to NO 19, Center-49-A.DePaola. 19-T.Ginn to NO 26 for 7 yards (15-J.Bellamy). PENALTY on NO-42-Z.Line, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at NO 19.

The Three Options

GO -2.62 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
70% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 76, worth -4.49 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model