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Chicago Bears

HC John Fox
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NO Home

New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
Sunday 2017-10-29 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread 7.5 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

CHI
16.7%
NO
83.3%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CHI offense: -0.203 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • QB edge to NO: Drew Brees (NO) +0.141 vs Mitch Trubisky (CHI) -0.383 EPA/dropback
  • NO offense: +0.133 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

CHI 17
–
NO 29
Projected margin: NO by 12 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

CHI

Sherrick McManis CB Doubtful Hamstring
Roy Robertson-Harris DE Doubtful Hamstring
John Timu LB Doubtful Ankle
Markus Wheaton WR Doubtful Groin
Benny Cunningham RB Questionable Hamstring
Hroniss Grasu C Questionable Hand

NO

Larry Warford G Out Abdomen

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 12
–
NO 20

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:13 TD NO (11:13) 41-A.Kamara left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – NO 6
  • Q2 14:57 FG CHI (14:57) 4-C.Barth 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-A.DePaola, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 3 – NO 7
  • Q2 03:45 TD NO (3:45) 61-J.LeRibeus reported in as eligible. 22-M.Ingram left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 3 – NO 13
  • Q3 05:47 FG CHI (5:47) 4-C.Barth 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-A.DePaola, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 6 – NO 14
  • Q4 12:59 FG NO (12:59) 3-W.Lutz 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. CHI 6 – NO 17
  • Q4 03:59 TD CHI (3:59) (Shotgun) 29-T.Cohen left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 12 – NO 17
  • Q4 01:40 FG NO (1:40) 3-W.Lutz 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. CHI 12 – NO 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 3 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 49%

    (8:06) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to NO 13, Center-49-A.DePaola, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 18 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (5:27) 6-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to CHI 26, Center-49-Z.Wood. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 25 for -1 yards (34-J.Hardee).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%

    (14:57) 4-C.Barth 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-A.DePaola, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 11 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (12:48) 6-T.Morstead punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-49-Z.Wood, Touchback.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 18 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 78%

    (:27) 4-C.Barth 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-A.DePaola, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (13:40) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 57 yards to NO 19, Center-49-A.DePaola. 19-T.Ginn to NO 26 for 7 yards (15-J.Bellamy). PENALTY on NO-42-Z.Line, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at NO 19.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 4 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (9:25) 6-T.Morstead punts 56 yards to CHI 3, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-34-J.Hardee.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 10 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 85%

    (5:47) 4-C.Barth 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-A.DePaola, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 5 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 40%

    (2:23) 6-T.Morstead punts 36 yards to CHI 10, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 10 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (:31) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 51 yards to NO 39, Center-49-A.DePaola. 19-T.Ginn to NO 47 for 8 yards (38-A.Amos).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 3 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 83%

    (12:59) 3-W.Lutz 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (12:02) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 61 yards to NO 10, Center-49-A.DePaola. 19-T.Ginn to NO 24 for 14 yards (36-D.Houston-Carson).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 1 at the 61 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67%

    (1:57) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass incomplete short right to 13-K.Wright (32-K.Vaccaro).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 3 at the 31 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 76%

    (1:40) 3-W.Lutz 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.