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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 27

New Orleans Saints 14 – Chicago Bears 6

What Actually Happened

(12:59) 3-W.Lutz 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.45 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 27, worth -0.65 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened
  • 83% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 37, worth -1.54 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model