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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 71

Chicago Bears 6 – New Orleans Saints 17

What Actually Happened

(12:02) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 61 yards to NO 10, Center-49-A.DePaola. 19-T.Ginn to NO 24 for 14 yards (36-D.Houston-Carson).

The Three Options

GO -1.98 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.22 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 71, worth -4.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 29, worth -1.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model