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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 56

Chicago Bears 0 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(8:06) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to NO 13, Center-49-A.DePaola, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.32 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 56, worth -3.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.99 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 17, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP