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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 8

Chicago Bears 0 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(14:57) 4-C.Barth 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-A.DePaola, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.49 EP
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.67 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 8, worth -0.11 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model