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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 23

Washington Commanders 10 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(10:09) 6-N.Rose 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.26 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.94 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 23, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 33, worth -1.34 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model