Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- DAL offense: +0.059 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
- Kirk Cousins (WAS): +0.146 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- WAS defense: -0.047 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
- DAL defense: +0.066 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
- WAS offense: +0.027 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 8
DAL
WAS
Pulled fresh for 2017 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 13:17 FG WAS (13:17) 6-N.Rose 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. DAL 0 – WAS 3
- Q1 10:37 TD DAL (10:37) 21-E.Elliott left guard for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 6 – WAS 3
- Q1 06:39 TD WAS (6:39) 66-T.Bergstrom reported in as eligible. 20-R.Kelley right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS-84-N.Paul was injured during the play. He is Out. 84 - was being evaluated for a possible concussion DAL 7 – WAS 9
- Q2 10:09 FG WAS (10:09) 6-N.Rose 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. DAL 7 – WAS 13
- Q2 02:24 TD DAL (2:24) 21-E.Elliott up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 13 – WAS 13
- Q3 08:44 FG DAL (8:44) 2-M.Nugent 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 17 – WAS 13
- Q3 06:29 FG DAL (6:29) 2-M.Nugent 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 20 – WAS 13
- Q3 00:42 FG DAL (:42) 2-M.Nugent 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 23 – WAS 13
- Q4 08:47 FG DAL (8:47) 2-M.Nugent 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 26 – WAS 13
- Q4 04:39 TD WAS (4:39) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 18-J.Doctson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [90-D.Lawrence]. WAS-69-T.Clemmings was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. DAL 26 – WAS 19
- Q4 00:30 TD DAL (:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle intended for 25-C.Thompson INTERCEPTED by 31-B.Jones (95-D.Irving) at WAS 21. 31-B.Jones for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 32 – WAS 19
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 WAS 4th & 1 at the 20Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EPp(convert) 67% p(FG) 90%
(13:17) 6-N.Rose 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.
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Q1 DAL 4th & 1 at the 52Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70% p(FG) 24%
(4:02) 21-E.Elliott up the middle to WAS 48 for 4 yards (50-M.Spaight).
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Q2 DAL 4th & 15 at the 31Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 74%
(13:04) 2-M.Nugent 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.
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Q2 WAS 4th & 7 at the 23Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 87%
(10:09) 6-N.Rose 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.
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Q2 DAL 4th & 13 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(8:08) 6-C.Jones punts 51 yards to WAS 27, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.
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Q2 WAS 4th & 10 at the 18Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 92%
(3:19) 6-N.Rose 36 yard field goal is BLOCKED (98-T.Crawford), Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way, RECOVERED by DAL-32-O.Scandrick at DAL 10. 32-O.Scandrick to WAS 4 for 86 yards (76-M.Moses). PENALTY on WAS-5-T.Way, Low Block, 2 yards, enforced at WAS 4.
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Q2 WAS 4th & 10 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(1:10) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to DAL 9, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-38-J.Holsey.
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Q2 DAL 4th & 3 at the 84Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 57%
(:25) 6-C.Jones punts 44 yards to WAS 40, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.
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Q3 DAL 4th & 6 at the 18Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 92%
(8:44) 2-M.Nugent 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.
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Q3 DAL 4th & 14 at the 30Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 76%
(6:29) 2-M.Nugent 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.
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Q3 WAS 4th & 12 at the 81Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(4:51) 5-T.Way punts 46 yards to DAL 35, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 10-R.Switzer to DAL 43 for 8 yards (31-F.Moreau; 55-C.Carter).
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Q3 DAL 4th & 5 at the 9Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EPp(convert) 38% p(FG) 97%
(:42) 2-M.Nugent 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.
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Q4 WAS 4th & 6 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(13:45) 5-T.Way punts 45 yards to DAL 26, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 10-R.Switzer to DAL 37 for 11 yards (50-M.Spaight, 57-N.Sundberg).
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Q4 DAL 4th & 5 at the 19Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 91%
(8:47) 2-M.Nugent 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.
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Q4 WAS 4th & 5 at the 53Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45% p(FG) 22%
(6:03) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 25-C.Thompson to DAL 42 for 11 yards (50-S.Lee; 90-D.Lawrence).
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Q4 DAL 4th & 1 at the 55 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70%
(1:05) 6-C.Jones punts 42 yards to WAS 13, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 80-J.Crowder MUFFS catch, and recovers at WAS 13. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 12 for -1 yards (35-K.Frazier, 31-B.Jones).