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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 18

Washington Commanders 13 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(3:19) 6-N.Rose 36 yard field goal is BLOCKED (98-T.Crawford), Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way, RECOVERED by DAL-32-O.Scandrick at DAL 10. 32-O.Scandrick to WAS 4 for 86 yards (76-M.Moses). PENALTY on WAS-5-T.Way, Low Block, 2 yards, enforced at WAS 4.

The Three Options

GO +1.31 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.36 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 18, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 28, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model