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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 18

Dallas Cowboys 14 – Washington Commanders 13

What Actually Happened

(8:44) 2-M.Nugent 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.31 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.03 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 18, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 28, worth -1.47 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model