Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 12 at the 81

Washington Commanders 13 – Dallas Cowboys 20

(4:51) 5-T.Way punts 46 yards to DAL 35, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 10-R.Switzer to DAL 43 for 8 yards (31-F.Moreau; 55-C.Carter).

The Three Options

GO -2.62 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.50 EP
66% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 81, worth -4.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model