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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 55

Dallas Cowboys 26 – Washington Commanders 19

What Actually Happened

(1:05) 6-C.Jones punts 42 yards to WAS 13, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 80-J.Crowder MUFFS catch, and recovers at WAS 13. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 12 for -1 yards (35-K.Frazier, 31-B.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +0.50 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 55, worth -1.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 16, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model