Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 71

Denver Broncos 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(14:16) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to KC 28, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 10-T.Hill ran ob at DEN 36 for 36 yards. PENALTY on KC-21-E.Murray, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 28.

The Three Options

GO -2.03 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
59% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 71, worth -4.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model