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Denver Broncos

HC Vance Joseph
@
KC Home

Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Monday 2017-10-30 · 20:30 Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.0 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

DEN
28.0%
KC
72.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DEN offense: -0.129 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • KC offense: +0.141 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • QB edge to KC: Alex Smith (KC) +0.193 vs Trevor Siemian (DEN) -0.024 EPA/dropback
  • DEN defense: -0.184 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • KC defense: +0.076 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • KC on 3 more days rest than DEN

Predicted Final Score

DEN 19
–
KC 25
Projected margin: KC by 6 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

DEN

Donald Stephenson T Out Calf
Todd Davis LB Questionable Ankle
Emmanuel Sanders WR Questionable Ankle
Virgil Green TE Questionable Shoulder
Derek Wolfe DE Questionable Hand

KC

Justin Houston LB Questionable Knee
Laurent Duvernay-Tardif G Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 19
–
KC 29

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:41 TD KC (9:41) (Shotgun) 28-J.Charles right guard to KC 46 for 5 yards (22-M.Peters). FUMBLES (22-M.Peters), RECOVERED by KC-22-M.Peters at DEN 45. 22-M.Peters for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on KC-22-M.Peters, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. DEN 0 – KC 6
  • Q1 06:18 TD KC (6:18) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass deep left to 87-T.Kelce for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 0 – KC 13
  • Q2 11:51 FG DEN (11:51) 8-B.McManus 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. Penalty on KC, Illegal Formation, declined. DEN 3 – KC 14
  • Q2 05:05 FG KC (5:05) 7-H.Butker 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. DEN 3 – KC 17
  • Q3 12:35 FG KC (12:35) 7-H.Butker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. DEN 3 – KC 20
  • Q3 08:15 FG DEN (8:15) 8-B.McManus 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DEN 6 – KC 20
  • Q3 01:18 TD DEN (1:18) 23-D.Booker up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 12 – KC 20
  • Q4 12:35 FG KC (12:35) 7-H.Butker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. DEN 13 – KC 23
  • Q4 07:07 FG KC (7:07) 7-H.Butker 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. DEN 13 – KC 26
  • Q4 04:46 FG KC (4:46) 7-H.Butker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. DEN 13 – KC 29
  • Q4 02:00 TD DEN (2:00) (Shotgun) 13-T.Siemian pass short left to 83-A.Derby for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 19 – KC 29

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (14:16) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to KC 28, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 10-T.Hill ran ob at DEN 36 for 36 yards. PENALTY on KC-21-E.Murray, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 28.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 6 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (10:58) 2-D.Colquitt punts 31 yards to DEN 27, Center-41-J.Winchester. 84-I.McKenzie to DEN 27 for no gain (57-K.Pierre-Louis).

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 6 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (8:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 34 yards to KC 32, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-42-C.Kreiter.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%

    (11:51) 8-B.McManus 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. Penalty on KC, Illegal Formation, declined.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (10:12) 2-D.Colquitt punts 50 yards to DEN 19, Center-41-J.Winchester. 84-I.McKenzie to DEN 19 for no gain (80-J.Chesson).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 12 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (9:17) 9-R.Dixon punts 37 yards to KC 46, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-20-J.Carter.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 97%

    (5:05) 7-H.Butker 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 7 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (:14) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to KC 10, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-32-A.Janovich.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 3 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (13:38) 2-D.Colquitt punts 47 yards to DEN 17, Center-41-J.Winchester. 84-I.McKenzie MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by KC-13-D.Thomas at DEN 16. 13-D.Thomas to DEN 16 for no gain (84-I.McKenzie).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 8 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 94%

    (12:35) 7-H.Butker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 7 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 93%

    (8:15) 8-B.McManus 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 8 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (7:09) 2-D.Colquitt punts 53 yards to DEN 17, Center-41-J.Winchester. 84-I.McKenzie to DEN 20 for 3 yards (45-U.Eligwe).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 9 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 82%

    (12:35) 7-H.Butker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 4 at the 52
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 18%

    (10:09) (Shotgun) 13-T.Siemian pass incomplete short middle to 84-I.McKenzie (56-D.Johnson).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 5 at the 33
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 65%

    (7:07) 7-H.Butker 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 12 at the 24 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 84%

    (4:46) 7-H.Butker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 12 at the 47 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 28%

    (:59) 2-D.Colquitt punts 27 yards to DEN 20, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-41-J.Winchester.