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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 9

Denver Broncos 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

What Actually Happened

(11:51) 8-B.McManus 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. Penalty on KC, Illegal Formation, declined.

The Three Options

GO +1.42 EP
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.60 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 9, worth -0.19 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model