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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 69

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(10:12) 2-D.Colquitt punts 50 yards to DEN 19, Center-41-J.Winchester. 84-I.McKenzie to DEN 19 for no gain (80-J.Chesson).

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.96 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 69, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.09 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 27, worth -1.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model