Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 12 at the 83

Denver Broncos 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

(9:17) 9-R.Dixon punts 37 yards to KC 46, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-20-J.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -2.98 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.17 EP
68% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 83, worth -4.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model