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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 7

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(5:05) 7-H.Butker 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +2.01 EP
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.12 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 7, worth +0.01 EP
KICK +2.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.55 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model