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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 58

Denver Broncos 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(:14) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to KC 10, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-32-A.Janovich.

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +0.90 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 58, worth -1.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 18, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model