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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 15

Denver Broncos 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 20

What Actually Happened

(8:15) 8-B.McManus 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.31 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.38 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 15, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model