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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 58

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(10:58) 2-D.Colquitt punts 31 yards to DEN 27, Center-41-J.Winchester. 84-I.McKenzie to DEN 27 for no gain (57-K.Pierre-Louis).

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +3.02 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 58, worth -2.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 18, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model