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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 9 at the 25

Kansas City Chiefs 20 – Denver Broncos 13

What Actually Happened

(12:35) 7-H.Butker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.86 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25, worth -0.91 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 35, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model