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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 33

Kansas City Chiefs 23 – Denver Broncos 13

What Actually Happened

(7:07) 7-H.Butker 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.18 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 33, worth -1.39 EP
KICK +0.59 EP
What Happened
  • 65% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 43, worth -1.83 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP