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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 12 at the 24

Kansas City Chiefs 26 – Denver Broncos 13

What Actually Happened

(4:46) 7-H.Butker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.85 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.88 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24, worth -0.65 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 34, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model