Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 12 at the 47

Kansas City Chiefs 29 – Denver Broncos 19

(:59) 2-D.Colquitt punts 27 yards to DEN 20, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-41-J.Winchester.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +1.00 EP
70% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 47, worth -1.36 EP

KICK -0.30 EP

28% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
72% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -1.37 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model