Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 66

Denver Broncos 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

(8:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 34 yards to KC 32, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-42-C.Kreiter.

The Three Options

GO -1.62 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.67 EP
59% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 66, worth -3.88 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model