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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 11 at the 67

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(14:51) 2-R.Sanchez punts 43 yards to CIN 24, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 12-A.Erickson MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by IND-52-B.Mingo at CIN 27.

The Three Options

GO -2.29 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.70 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 67, worth -3.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 25, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model